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April 29th trade risk warning

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Dynamic information on international trade cooperation and friction
2020/04/29 10:06.

April 29th trade risk warning

The US Department of Commerce tightened export control restrictions. In April 27th, the US government announced that it would impose new restrictions on the export of civil aircraft components and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. The new rules require that after obtaining the license, American companies can sell certain products to Chinese companies that support the armed forces, even if they are for civilian use. The regulation also repealed some unauthorized export exceptions of US technology and products. The above provisions eliminate the exception of civil licensing for Chinese importers and Chinese nationals, as well as other countries such as Ukraine and Russia, involving integrated circuits, telecommunications equipment, radar, high-end computers and other items. The US government has also issued third proposed changes in rules. When foreign companies are transporting specific American goods to China, they seek not only the approval of their own governments, but also the approval of the United States. (observer network)

The US food supply chain is breaking down under the epidemic. According to the British Guardian reported on April 27th, Tyson, one of the largest meat producers in the United States, warned that during the new crown epidemic, "the food supply chain is breaking down and the supply of products will be limited." Tyson foods has closed several factories across the United States, and many factories have cut production. (World Wide Web)

In April 2020, the French household confidence index hit its biggest monthly decline since 1972. According to the statistical report released by the French National Institute of statistics and Economic Research (Insee), the French household confidence index fell to 95 in April this year, down 8 points compared with the same period last year, the biggest decline in 1972 since April 28th, echoes reported. This index returned to the level of February 2019, when the French "yellow vest" campaign seriously affected the morale of French family consumption. (Ministry of commerce website)

Hungary's fiscal deficit rose sharply in the first quarter. In April 24th, the Hun finance ministry said that the most important task of the government is to cope with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. In response to the negative economic impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak and the implementation of fiscal measures, the government revised the budget deficit target in 2020, from 1% of GDP to 2.7%, from 367 billion forest (about 1 billion 120 million US dollars) to 16010 billion forest (about 4 billion 870 million US dollars). By the end of March, the deficit increased to 831 billion 900 million forest (2 billion 530 million US dollars), accounting for 226.7% of the original planned deficit of 367 billion, and 52% of the revised annual plan deficit. (Ministry of commerce website)

Tea export has been hit hard by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Daily finance 27 reported that tea exports in Sri Lanka hit the lowest shipments in history since March, due to the outbreak of trade controls, and the value dropped sharply. According to industry sources, the export volume of tea in March was only 13 million 800 thousand kilograms, the lowest export volume in history, down 47.7% (12 million 600 thousand kilograms) compared with the same period last year, and the export volume was only 11 billion 500 million rupees, down 48% (10 billion 900 million rupees). The price of FOB in March 2020 was 836.74 rupees per kilogram, a decrease of 13.74 rupees compared with the same period last year. Iraq, Turkey and Russia are the top three importers of tea, followed by Iran, Azerbaijan, Chile, Saudi Arabia, China and Syria. (Ministry of commerce website)

There are 100 enterprises in Japan due to outbreaks. People's daily, Tokyo, April, 28 (Zheng Jin) according to NHK television reports, the survey data released by the Japanese folk credit investigation company on 27 showed that 100 companies in Japan have declared bankruptcy because of the impact of the new crown pneumonia. (Ministry of commerce website)

Affected by the epidemic, Japan's large enterprises lowered the estimated revenue of 2019 annual earnings. People's daily, Tokyo, April, 28, Panasonic, Japan, on the 27 day, lowered its estimated revenue from 2019 (April 1, 2019 to 2020 3 to 31). Due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Panasonic's estimated revenue in February was 7 trillion and 450 billion yen (about 491 billion 800 million yuan), a decrease of 250 billion yen (about 16 billion 500 million yuan) compared with the estimated revenue data released in February this year, down 3.2%. In addition, the three Yue Yi Dan Dan holdings also announced the revised 2019 annual earnings forecast revision data. Due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it is expected that there will be a loss of 11 billion yen (730 million yuan). (Ministry of commerce website)

India's agencies predict that India's economic growth rate will be 1.9% in the 2020 to 21 fiscal year. India's rating and Research (Ind-Ra) research report released on 27 points out that India's economic growth forecast for the 2020 to 21 fiscal year is around 1.9%. According to India media reports, the Agency predicted 3.6% in March. India's rating and Research (Ind-Ra) said that if India's blockade policy can be concluded by mid May, India's economic growth in the 2020 to 21 fiscal year may be around 1.9%, but if the policy can not be concluded in mid May and further extended, India's economic growth rate may drop to 2.1%. (China financial information network)

The New Zealand Federal Reserve will add negative interest rates to policy instruments. Even if the New Zealand Federal Reserve said last month that the official cash rate (OCR) would remain at 0.25% in the coming year, we expect that the New Zealand Federal Reserve will cut the official cash rate (OCR) to a negative level in November. We expect that the New Zealand Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points to -0.5%. The official cash rate (OCR) to a negative value will allow banks to increase lending, but mortgage and deposit interest rates should stay above zero. (International derivatives think tank)

Fair trade department, Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce

April 29, 2020

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