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April 28th trade risk warning

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Dynamic information on international trade cooperation and friction
2020/04/29 10:05.

April 28th trade risk warning

The oil cap is coming soon, and oil prices are down again. In April 27th, the sluggish international market demand and the further narrowing of the global oil storage space caused crude oil prices to end the previous rebound trend and again suffered a heavy setback. The June deliveries of light crude oil, or WTI futures, fell 24.56%, trading at $12.78 a barrel. In addition, Brent crude oil futures in London fell 6.76% in June, below 20 US dollars per barrel. The diamond offshore drilling company in Houston applied for bankruptcy protection. The US oil fund USO, which can be traded by retail investors, will gradually reduce the recent WTI futures and shift to a more long-term futures market. USO's documents submitted last Friday also showed that it reduced the WTI position due in July and increased the position of September contracts. (CCTV Finance)

Due to the shutdown of the Brazil processing plant in the US and Canada, the world is facing a shortage of meat. Lianhe Zaobao reported on April 27th that a number of meat processing plants in the United States and the world have been shut down due to the outbreak of coronavirus disease, which seriously affects meat supply. The United States is expected to soon have meat shortages. After the first big meat factory closed last week, meat supply in the United States dropped by 1/3. The world's largest supplier of chicken and beef to Brazil and Canada also followed the US's footsteps. Brazil's largest chicken and beef exporter JBS SA and a number of Canadian meat factories were temporarily shut down in the past week because of workers' diagnosis. The three countries supply 65% meat for the global market. As more and more factories shut down due to crown disease, the market is concerned about the shortage of meat globally. (Lianhe Zaobao)

Affected by the epidemic, Adidas's net profit fell 96% in the first quarter. Adidas's first quarter results in 2020 showed that the majority of Adidas's business stalled, excluding exchange rate factors, except for the Asia Pacific market, sales increased by 8% in the first two months of this year. More than 70% of the world's stores are still closed. In the euro, Adidas's global sales fell 19% to 4 billion 750 million euros in the first quarter compared with the previous year, operating profit plummeted 93% to 65 million euros, while net profit dropped 96% to 26 million euros. (First Finance)

During the French ban, the market economy shrank by 49%. According to the data released by the French National Institute of statistics and Economic Research (INSEE) today, since the implementation of the ban, the market economy of France has shrunk by nearly half (49%) of the market economy than the normal period, according to the report published by the French National Statistics and Economic Research Institute (INSEE) today. (Ministry of commerce website)

Estonia's state of emergency extended to May 17th. The government of Estonia announced on April 24th that the state emergency should be extended until midnight on May 17th. (Ministry of commerce website)

Fitch upgraded the outlook to a negative rating down to "B-". "Daily finance" 25 reported that Fitch yesterday lowered Sri Lanka's sovereign rating, due to tax cuts and related fiscal policy changes at the end of last year, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the economy will further exacerbate the challenges of public debt and external debt sustainability. Therefore, the long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer default rating (IDR) has been reduced from "B" to "B-", and the outlook has been turned negative. (Ministry of commerce website)

South Korea's FX differential trading volume surged 200% in March, which led financial regulators to worry. Yonhap reported on April 27th that, due to the proliferation and persistence of the new crown pneumonia, the won won several sharp rises and falls in March against the US dollar. According to the April 47th Financial Investment Association of Korea, the amount of FX balance transactions of individual investors in South Korea exceeded 20 billion US dollars in March, amounting to 21 billion 350 million US dollars, an increase of 200.1% over the same period last year. At the end of last month, the exchange rate was about 26 trillion won. South Korea's FX differential trading volume was 194 thousand, an increase of 193.9% over the same period last year. (Ministry of commerce website)

Affected by the outbreak, the first quarter results of steel industry in Korea fell sharply. According to Yonhap reported on April 26th, under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the steel industry chain was also affected, and the first quarter performance of Korean steel enterprises plummeted. POSCO's operating profit dropped sharply from 41.4% to 705 billion 300 million won in the first quarter, and the loss of 29 billion 700 million won won by modern iron making. (Ministry of commerce website)

G20's GDP growth rate is low in the two quarter. According to Bloomberg statistics global investment bank (IB) and economic research institutions released data show that G20 in the second quarter of this year, GDP will be 11% lower than the same period last year, the lowest level since 1999, the economic cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) began to separate G20 economic growth rate since the beginning of the year. According to OECD, G20 had the lowest single quarter growth rate in the first quarter of 2009 -2.4%. In terms of country and region, G20 members expect the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter of this year to be positive only in China (1.5%), India (2%) and Indonesia (5%), while GDP in Italy (-12.1%), UK (-11.1%) and France (-10.3%) will drop sharply. In addition, China's GDP growth rate was -6.8% in the first quarter of this year, but it is expected to rebound in the second quarter. (Ministry of commerce website)

2020 Dubai World Expo intends to be postponed. The Executive Committee of the International Exhibition Bureau has agreed that 2020 Dubai World Expo will be postponed. According to the relevant regulations, the change of the date of hosting World Expo needs the support of 2/3 of the member states of the international exhibition authority. The executive committee will require Member States to conduct a network voting before May 29th to make a final decision. (people's daily)

Fair trade department, Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce

April 28, 2020

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