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April 27th trade risk warning

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Dynamic information on international trade cooperation and friction
2020/04/29 10:05.

April 27th trade risk warning

World Steel Association: global steel output decreased by 6% in March compared with the same period last year. The World Steel Association recently released a report that the world produced 1.4705 million tons of steel in March this year, a decrease of 6% compared with the same period last year. The report said that in March this year, the Asian countries produced 1.057 million tons of steel, the production decreased by 4.1% compared with the same period last year, the output of steel produced by the EU countries was 12 million 30 thousand tons, a decrease of 20.4% compared with the same period last year, the 9 million 660 thousand tons of steel produced in North America decreased by 9.4% compared with that of the previous year, and the 8 million 260 thousand tons of steel produced by the CIS countries decreased by 6.2% compared with the same period last year. Other European countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia and Turkey) produced 3 million 390 thousand tons of steel, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year, and 3 million 300 thousand tons of steel produced in South America, a decrease of 9.4% over the same period last year; 3 million 350 thousand tons of steel produced in the Middle East, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year, and nearly 1 million tons of steel produced in African countries, a decrease of 22.4% over the same period last year; and 413 thousand tons of steel produced in Oceania, a decrease of 12.9% over the same period last year. According to the report, 4.4303 tons of Communist steel in the world in the first quarter of this year decreased by 1.4% compared with the same period last year. Among them, Russia produced 17 million 900 thousand tons of steel, down 1% from the same period last year, and China produced 2.3445 tons of steel, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year. (Reference News Network)

US tire shipments will drop by 17.8% this year. US media reported on April 24th that US tire shipments may drop to the lowest level in decades. The latest forecast of the American Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) showed that in 2020, almost all kinds of tire shipments in the United States showed a sharp decline in the two figure, but the replacement tire market performance was slightly better than that of the original tire market. USTMA said that in 2020, U.S. tire shipments could drop to 273 million 600 thousand tires, down 17.8% from 332 million 700 thousand in 2019. Among them, the original shipment volume is expected to drop by 24.5%; replacement tire shipments are expected to fall by 16.3%, and truck tire shipments may be the best, with a drop of 7.3%. (China Rubber Journal)

Romania's main government will raise income tax. Romania-Insider reported in April 24th that according to a joint report prepared by ZiarulFinanciar Daily and the Romania Development Alliance (CDR), the Romania government will have to make unpopular decisions to control the budget deficit. Possible measures include raising the income tax rate from 10% to 16%, imposing medical insurance premiums on the pension that exceeds the average wage level, or dismissing 30% employees who are financially charged within 5 years. (Ministry of commerce website)

For the first time since the outbreak, Russia has cut interest rates over the past 4 years. On April 24th, the Russian Central Bank decided to cut the benchmark interest rate from 6% to 5.5% at the latest conference on interest rates. This is also the first time the Russian central bank has cut interest rates since the outbreak of the new crown in March. This also means that after the adjustment, the current interest rate level of the Central Bank of Russia is the lowest in 2012. (first financial network)

Sugar production in Philippines hit a new low of ten years. According to Philippines's Star newspaper reported on April 23rd, sugar production in Philippines is likely to reach its lowest level in ten years, and will fall further in the next crop year. Imports will continue to increase as demand increases. The latest report of the US Department of agriculture's foreign agricultural service bureau shows that the expected output of sugar in Philippines is 2 million 25 thousand tons, down 3.5% from last year. The main reason is the instability of weather conditions in sugarcane producing areas and the reduction of planting area from 410 thousand hectares to 407 thousand hectares. It is estimated that the next crop year's output will drop to 2 million tons. Next year the import volume may increase from 400 thousand tons this year to 450 thousand tons. Sugar demand is expected to increase slightly from 2 million 300 thousand tonnes this year to 2 million 350 thousand tons next year. (Ministry of commerce website)

India's foreign exchange reserves dropped to US $470 billion. According to the March 28th India economic times, India's central bank data show that India's foreign exchange reserves are now down to 470 billion US dollars. To prevent the rupee from falling rapidly against the US dollar, the central bank has sold $30 billion to the market. Only 16 to 20 days in March, India's foreign exchange reserves decreased by 11 billion 980 million US dollars, the biggest weekly decline since the financial crisis in 2008. (Ministry of commerce website)

Moodie sharply lowered India's economic growth rate to 2.5% in 2020. According to the news of India economic times and mint daily in March 28th, Moodie, an international rating agency, lowered India's 2020 economic growth forecast from 5.3% 10 days ago to 2.5%. Moodie pointed out in the "2020 to 21 global macro outlook" that the 21 day blockade measures will cause sharp reduction in income and domestic demand, and will further slow down the pace of recovery. Moodie is optimistic about the economic outlook of India in 2021 and thinks that growth will rebound to 5.8%. India's central bank said 27 days ago that the actual GDP growth in India in the first quarter of 2020 was 4.7%, which was dragged down by the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The 2019 - 20 fiscal year growth rate will not be able to maintain the 5% forecast. With the extension of the epidemic, the supply chain interruption intensified and the global economic growth slowed down, which will bring negative effects to India. (Ministry of commerce website)

The Iraqi agricultural food industry lost more than $240 million due to the epidemic. Iran's financial Tribune reported on April 24th that a new report by the Iran parliamentary Research Institute said that the new coronavirus had caused a loss of 3 trillion and 950 billion rial (about 243 million US dollars) in the consumption and export of Iran's food and agricultural industry. On the one hand, public self isolation, the closure of restaurants and hotels and other service industries have restrained domestic consumption, and the loss of profits from food processing and agricultural enterprises has reached US $200 million. On the other hand, the restrictions on goods transportation and logistics by neighbouring customs and border ports have reduced the export volume of agricultural products by 10%, or about 43 million US dollars. (Ministry of commerce website)

Fair trade department, Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce

April 27, 2020

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